For instance - if I bought a house in the 1990s for 200K and it's now worth a million dollars, it isn't stealing $800K from anywhere. That's new wealth that I have that I can also put to work. (Even if I don't take a mortgage out on the house, I can invest more of my other money more aggressively, if I'm paying less mortgage, or know that I have a high value asset in my home)
I think it's more appropriate to look at the monthly rent differential.
Let's say that a 1BR in Palo Alto costs $2,500, and a similar one in Austin costs $1,000. [0] In that case, there is a $1,500 * 12 = $18,000 differential. Let's double it to include how much you have to make to have that much take-home income, and you have a $36,000 per year difference. If an angel-fed startup has 3 employees, then there is a ~100K per year of effective real estate tax. (Approximately 20-25% rather than 100%[1])
The trade-off is, how much more likely are you to succeed and scale based on being in SF vs Austin?
[0] I'm basing both #s on the very accurate "Approximate the first Google result" method.
[1] One can argue that everything is more expensive in the bay area, but total cost of living comparisons are tough to do. Is it % of spending or absolute dollars? Does it depend on public schools? Quality of goods?
It's not "stealing" 800k. That would be a bit too strong. But the problem is that your 800k comes via the fact that newer entrants to the market must now take out monster mortgages. It's not wealth created, but a draw on future wealth and an increase in the interest payments of younger workers.
It's sort of a generationally regressive tax. I personally suspect that policies that protect and encourage RE hyperinflation have been pursued as a way for the baby boomers to economically eat their children.
Rent prices are also quite tied to real estate prices, so when the latter appreciates rents go up too.
Over the long term, rent usually fixes to a certain % of "All in" housing costs. (Usually close to mortgage payments plus upkeep plus condo fees)
The difference is that rent is a short term costs, so for startups they're not eating the 30 year home ownership cost, just the monthly rental differences.
It is a generationally regressive tax only to the extent that parents die with no assets left. If they die with positive assets, then the value of their homes gets handed to their kids.
The CA system is painful for other reasons. At the outset, it's a tax by people with good credit on people with bad. (You can't get the tax benefits of home ownership unless you have good credit) The bigger issue is the nature of the taxation... Because tax increases on houses can't rise as fast as the homes themselves, new homeowners pay a penalty relative to the value of the house. (If you and I both both buy homes in the same neighborhood. You paid 500K 3 years ago, and I pay 1mm today, my tax burden will be almost double yours)
For instance - if I bought a house in the 1990s for 200K and it's now worth a million dollars, it isn't stealing $800K from anywhere. That's new wealth that I have that I can also put to work. (Even if I don't take a mortgage out on the house, I can invest more of my other money more aggressively, if I'm paying less mortgage, or know that I have a high value asset in my home)
I think it's more appropriate to look at the monthly rent differential.
Let's say that a 1BR in Palo Alto costs $2,500, and a similar one in Austin costs $1,000. [0] In that case, there is a $1,500 * 12 = $18,000 differential. Let's double it to include how much you have to make to have that much take-home income, and you have a $36,000 per year difference. If an angel-fed startup has 3 employees, then there is a ~100K per year of effective real estate tax. (Approximately 20-25% rather than 100%[1])
The trade-off is, how much more likely are you to succeed and scale based on being in SF vs Austin?
[0] I'm basing both #s on the very accurate "Approximate the first Google result" method.
[1] One can argue that everything is more expensive in the bay area, but total cost of living comparisons are tough to do. Is it % of spending or absolute dollars? Does it depend on public schools? Quality of goods?