Chocolate isn't, so far as I can tell, controlled by a cartel. It would be difficult to do that, because it's an agricultural commodity. It's hard† to organize every farmer around the world that can manage a grove of cacao trees, and --- unsurprisingly given the history of the product --- processing cacao into chocolate liquor doesn't require specialized technology.
Meanwhile, the branding effect you talk about seems to cut against your argument. If consumers are conditioned to seek out boutique chocolate, the barriers to entry into the chocolate market are lowered: large suppliers like Hersheys and Callebaut can't use their brand power to lock consumers in which harvesting their economies of scale.
Long story short: I think the 1-2-3-4 story you told upthread isn't very plausible. If chocolate prices rise and stay there, my guess is that's where they belong. If they didn't, one of the dozens upon dozens of boutique suppliers already vying for shelf space at Whole Foods and Safeway and Costco would sacrifice a little surplus profit to make a play for some of Callebaut's market share.
† Sugar is an exception, but there are extrinsic reasons for the market dynamics of sugar --- trade policy and subsidies being two big ones --- that are absent from cacao.
We'll see what ends up happening. My guess is that we'll see a number of market factors combine to sustain higher prices at the cash register, even if cacao prices fluctuate down.
Meanwhile, the branding effect you talk about seems to cut against your argument. If consumers are conditioned to seek out boutique chocolate, the barriers to entry into the chocolate market are lowered: large suppliers like Hersheys and Callebaut can't use their brand power to lock consumers in which harvesting their economies of scale.
Long story short: I think the 1-2-3-4 story you told upthread isn't very plausible. If chocolate prices rise and stay there, my guess is that's where they belong. If they didn't, one of the dozens upon dozens of boutique suppliers already vying for shelf space at Whole Foods and Safeway and Costco would sacrifice a little surplus profit to make a play for some of Callebaut's market share.
† Sugar is an exception, but there are extrinsic reasons for the market dynamics of sugar --- trade policy and subsidies being two big ones --- that are absent from cacao.