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I think the article is pretty misleading given that the British carried out their first nuclear bomb test in 1952 and the French in 1960, it was pretty obvious already that other countries could build a bomb.

Reading the original report they assumed a reactor capable of producing plutonium was available so I'd say the real reasons for the experiment is to answer questions like, "if we sell countries reactors how big a step would it be for them to build a bomb". Given smart (but not Einstein smart) trained physicists with access to the publicly available literature, the answer they come to is 3 man years. Thats for an implosion device, a gun design would have been "finished much sooner".

Reading between the lines I guess there was also an element of trying to figure out how much of other countries nuclear programmes was based on espionage (the British were partners in the Manhattan Project, and the Soviets had had several spies there). They conclude that "its not surprising China has progressed so rapidly".

Finally its also worth noting that the reviewers were less confident in the design then the scientists were, they dont say it wouldn't work, just that it would need testing to work out the kinks (which the designers also say they just seem to expect less bugs :)



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