There are biological analogies you could have chosen other than adaptive hill-climbing. For instance, there's adaptive radiation, where a small population of organisms is introduced into a new environment and rapidly diversifies into new species, filling niches that weren't filled before. After the environment is mostly saturated, the populations stabilize and adaptation slows down, with gradual and relatively slow change and diversification.
Plugging LLM into this analogy would lead to a story where we're at the initial "Permian explosion" phase of evolution. New LLMs are rapidly "hill climbing" as they feed on virgin data scraped from the Internet. But as those LLMs diversify and adapt, they peter out once all niches have been filled and the fuel consumed.
Another analogy is the Petri dish, but that's an even more pessimistic analogy than adaptive radiation.
> After the environment is mostly saturated, the populations stabilize and adaptation slows down, with gradual and relatively slow change and diversification.
We have the pressures of growth and novelty. My analogy is perfect.
Plugging LLM into this analogy would lead to a story where we're at the initial "Permian explosion" phase of evolution. New LLMs are rapidly "hill climbing" as they feed on virgin data scraped from the Internet. But as those LLMs diversify and adapt, they peter out once all niches have been filled and the fuel consumed.
Another analogy is the Petri dish, but that's an even more pessimistic analogy than adaptive radiation.