hmmm... although it is a logical fallacy, statistics show that the margin of error based on successful previous observations is smaller than the margin of error base on no previous observations.

In other words, although it is not certain that an observation will be accurate, the chances of an accurate observation are increased by someone who has previous success.

Smart people - who have observed things correctly - might have fewer errors observing and predicting.

(but I'm old and silly, frequently suffering from Gell-Mann Amnesia)