> People have been screaming about Tether being a scam for almost a decade now and it hasn’t crashed.
In this hypothetical situation, you have information that would apparently "crash the market" if it were to become public, so what happened for the last decade isn't really relevant. Remember, this conversation started talking about Tether redemptions failing to go through and whether or not people would go public with that information. Someone said they wouldn't go public because it would crash the value of their assets, but I was pointing out that you could profit from the crash in value as well.
As pointed out elsewhere in this thread, the counterparty risk to these shorts makes it nearly impossible to do.
And this information has been public for years, including the NYAG evidence which is very damning, but no one seems to actually care - or it’s being propped up successfully regardless.
Even in this thread there are folks who refuse to believe things Tether themselves have admitted to under oath and things Tether says in their own TOS now.
At this point, even if you had authenticated video of the Tether founders admitting it was all a giant scam, would it change the market behavior? I kind of doubt it.
It’ll keep going until it doesn’t, then who knows.
We're talking about a hypothetical situation where people have attempted to withdraw Tether and failed to do so. And the assertion was that no one would "spill the beans" about Tether's inability to redeem USDT because they'd risk harming their own investment. That would not happen because of what I outlined above. There will be at least one person willing to make a bet on this. It's in the DNA of people who trade. The appeal of exploiting information asymmetry is too great, at least for one of the participants. And all it takes is one person to reveal Tether's inability to pay.
The market can remain insane longer than you could remain solvent in that case.