Sure, your formula is not wrong. But its a bit like saying "it's easy to lose weight, eat less, eat better, exercise more." It might be simple, but it's not easy.

Going into the nuance of each step in your formula would result in a too-long post, but let's consider the first;

>> stay in school, pay attention, get good grades.

For various reasons this is easier to do for the rich, and harder for the poor. Better nutrition. Better home support if your parents were educated and have surplus time. Better access to ancillaries (books, stationery etc.) Less need for you to get a job to supplement family income. No need for you to act as day care to younger siblings. More reliable transport to and from school. Better sleep patterns in warm, secure, environment. Better infant nutrition resulting in well-developed current mental facilities. Better access to heath care, meaning fewer lost school days.

And so on.

Your formula is not wrong. But it is not easy. And every part of it is greased with money. The best indicator of success is the environment you are born into.

It's worth stating clearly: the best predictor of poor health and other "failure" is being born into poverty. A predatory economic system will defend predatory economic mechanisms.

Such a system will even go to war to defend the "proper order of things".

> When you see or interact with someone who is down on their luck, remember that it probably wasn’t just one thing that put them in that situation.

Indeed.

I didn't say it was easy. I said it was simple. These are all choices one makes.

The first step towards success is making the choice to own your choices, instead of blaming your parents, your school, etc.

Nobody makes people take drugs. They choose to.

I agree you have choices. It's just that those choices are easier, and simpler, the more money you have.

Incidentally the drug choice is less aligned with poverty. Middle class and rich people take plenty of drugs, including expensive ones like opiods and cocaine. Drugs more likely to be used by the less affluent (weed) is more actively enforced, including well understood disparities on racial and socio-economic lines.

But we digress, this is not about drugs. It's about the ability of people to succeed. And the playing field there is far from level.

So don't smoke weed, and disparate enforcement won't matter.

I voted for the legalization of marijuana. That doesn't mean smoking weed is a good idea. It's expensive, too. Can't really claim one can't make ends meet when spending money on weed.

But as I wrote, we each make our choices.

1. Yes, but schools can be incredibly bad. They are largely funded by local taxes and tend to be playgrounds for lunatic educational theories of both right and left. You need a big dose of luck to ride this train.

2. Assuming you can get the grades, without a library, internet, or a stable home life, sure. And that you can navigate the fafsa and the rest of the college bureaucracy, potentially without parental help (and god help you if you have an uncooperative parent and cant get the data).

3. Sure, assuming your home life is stable enough to keep you out of this. Harder if mom or dad is already neck deep in weed, meth, or opioids.

4. Sure, if we are talking about shoplifting or larceny. But a teen can be pulled over for riding in a car on the flimsiest of reasons, and if the cop doesnt like you, you can easily get sucked into the maw of the justice system. I think we've all seen enough video of police acting badly to know that things can easily go badly wrong in a heartbeat.

5. Yes, except that not every plan covers it, and sometimes it fails, and it is becoming increasingly hard to get a plan B, like literal plan B or abortion. Plus we may have higher rates of sexual crime.

All the things you say are correct, but the reality of being poor in America is much, much uglier than straightforward theory suggests.

The schools are run by the teachers' union. If the schools are bad, it starts and ends with the union.

Yes, sometimes birth control fails, and there are sexual crimes. That doesn't explain teen pregnancy rates, though.

> without a library, internet, or a stable home life

The library, internet, or home life is simply not necessary to get good grades. The schools move along very, very slowly. 6 hours a day in class is enough time to learn it all several times over. If one pays attention.

> enough video

That implies that all the crime in poor neighborhoods is actually over-enforcement by the cops. That doesn't explain the bars on the windows.

> And that you can navigate the fafsa and the rest of the college bureaucracy, potentially without parental help

What do you need parental help for there? The colleges provide everything necessary. When I was in that situation, I sent a letter to each college asking for their admissions package. They mailed it to me. I followed the directions in it. Fulfilled the requirements. Wrote the essays. Filled in the forms. Sent it in. My parents did exactly none of it.

If one stayed in school K-12 and paid attention in class, one should be quite capable to handle applying to college.

You need to watch Season 4 of The Wire.