Did the Jews who escaped Nazi Germany know to do that because of what they were reading in the news?
I get that we all want to avoid dangers and that knowing about them in advance helps. I just question whether reading the news is a good way to do that.
Are you asking about the historical facts? I don't know. Not my speciality, and I don't want to say something which might be not true.
Are you asking about the younger me's understanding of this question? I can answer that. Understand the following in this light:
My understanding that their persecution was not a bolt from the blue. Politicians were agitating against them. There were speeches, there were marching demonstrations, then there were aggression against individuals. Shops burnt down etc. It wasn't like yesterday was everything A-okay, and today you are sitting in a cattle car heading to a gas chamber.
> I just question whether reading the news is a good way to do that.
I understand that. And I agree with you it is better to be skeptical about these things. But on the other hand with Ukraine I had a good 5 monthish heads-up. Maybe 2 month if i'm calculating from the "my spidersense is tingling enough that I would start walking out with nothing but the clothes I have on my back if I must" moment. So in the present day it's hard to convince me that it's not a good way to do that. One of course also needs a head solidly attached to their shoulders, and a good mind in it, but that's always needed for everything.
Yes, because that's what's relevant to the question of whether watching the news is or is not a good way to get advance warnings of the kind of danger you might need to take drastic action to avoid. My understanding of the historical fact is that Jews who left Germany to escape the Nazis did not do so based on anything they read in the news; they did so based on word of mouth about where things were heading and based on the declared intentions of the Nazis, which anyone who had read Mein Kampf could have predicted.
> their persecution was not a bolt from the blue
That's correct, it most definitely was not. There were warning signs years in advance. My understanding is that the biggest obstacle to Jews fleeing from Germany was not lack of information but the simple fact that it's very, very difficult to uproot your entire life and flee to a foreign country you've never seen where almost nobody speaks your language, so convincing yourself that it really, truly is necessary to do that is something people will have a very difficult time doing even if they already have all the information they need to see the necessity.
> with Ukraine I had a good 5 monthish heads-up
Based on what you read in the news? Or based on information you got other ways, that you would have gotten whether you read the news or not? Putin's intentions towards the Ukraine have been clear for years, certainly since the annexation of the Crimea. I don't think this was a bolt from the blue any more than the Nazi persecution of Jews was.
> My understanding of the historical fact is that Jews who left Germany to escape the Nazis did not do so based on anything they read in the news; they did so based on word of mouth about where things were heading
That sounds same-ish to me. “Word of mouth” is just news from people you personally know. It certainly enhances reading news in certain cases. For example if there were a modern day politician who would write a modern day Mein Kampf i would know about it because podcasts I’m listening to would mention it, and the twitterati would denounce it. I would count all of that as “news”.
> biggest obstacle to Jews fleeing from Germany was not lack of information but the simple fact that it's very, very difficult to uproot your entire life and flee to a foreign country
You are absolutely right. Knowing is only half the battle. I have other tactics which help me with the other half too.
> Based on what you read in the news?
Well maybe you got me. I believe the first signs I read where some satelite image analysis re-tweeted by either Dr Jeffrey Lewis or Decker Eveleth. I count these sources as “news” because occasionly they tell me stuff about the world I didn’t know before. Obviously you might disagree on that, and that is fine.
> I don't think this was a bolt from the blue any more than the Nazi persecution of Jews was.
Sounds like we are in agreement then. There is a sad element of “boiling the frog” here. As you say things are certainly bad between Ru and Uk since years. I could imagine that months ago someone less informed could hear rummours and murmurings and dismiss it as “oh, the russians are rattling their rabbles again”. I couldn’t even fault them! That was my first thought too, that this is just a replay of the Zapad excercise and nothing to worry about. But then i got more specifics from more sources and more modalities and remembered how exactly Zapad went and realised that there is something more to this now.
Heck! Five years ago I got offered a job in Tallin. I declined it for many reasons, and one of them amongst them was the closeness of Russia and their expressed and stated intents. Did anything happened to Estonia? Nothing so far, and hopefully nothing will. Being well informed is not just all about dramatic escapes, but also about avoiding being in harms way when possible.
I feel we talked enough about Ukraine, i have a different example too. I’m an EU national living in the UK. The current words of the settlement scheme basically grants me rights to stay here. Many of my friends are in the same shoes and they are really relaxed about it. The thing is I read about the Windrush scandal and know that what seems certain now might change a decade or two later. This motivates me to aim for more secure forms of attachment to the country I’m living in. They might loose (accidentally or intentionally) my paperwork, but they are less likely to loose my passport if i get naturalized. ( Less likely, but of course we know they can still do that, just think of Shamima Begum )
The details don’t matter of course. What matters is that I have listened to the news, heard things and changed my behaviour. This is the reason I listen/read/hear news from a variety of sources.
I get that we all want to avoid dangers and that knowing about them in advance helps. I just question whether reading the news is a good way to do that.