Vladimir Agafonkin here. Thanks for posting this! I'll be happy to answer any questions about Russia's invasion of Ukraine and current Ukrainian reality here whenever I get the chance.
There was a Russian troll here asking why I didn't leave earlier even though I knew this would happen, and whether I'm planning on bribing officials to avoid conscription. I already wrote the answers but the parent comment was flagged, so posting here:
1. Most people I know didn't believe Putin would suicidally start a large-scale invasion, despite potentially severe losses (~10k Russian soldiers killed so far in a week) and the complete destruction of Russian economy. Many thought US intelligence' warnings were a part of the information warfare for deterrence. We were wrong. Putin is actually this insane.
2. I registered where I'm staying locally and the military have my number / temp address if they need me. But the number of volunteers to fight WAY exceeds military capacity, so for now I'm staying in the rear and helping where I can make the most impact — by rallying donations, consulting IT volunteers on local map projects, and spreading the truth. I'm contemplating getting my wife and kids through the border but will stay in Ukraine myself, like other Ukrainian men.
I absolutely sympathize with your situation - and I thank you for talking from the field (as well as for leaflet itself, which powers my daily work !)
However, just to get your opinion, do you feel the figures of Russian casualties are realistic ? (I guess you don't have any privileged information, but is there any "word of mouth" about the figures ?)
Anyway, we'll find out in the future.
Stay safe, thanks again, and good luck to you and your loved ones.
Those are official stats from Ukrainian Armed Forces, and they are absolutely realistic, even if approximate. If you're in doubt, follow Bellingcat, OSINTtechnical and people like Christo Grozev who coordinate open source intelligence / confirmation based on available photos / videos. They mostly confirm those numbers.
How about the one off battle stats? There seem to keep being reports of hundreds of vehicles destroyed in singular events. These don't seem to be reflected in the totals even days later though. I'm not clear on whether its because they don't actually have the capacity to count this stuff or if its partially bluster.
Donate here https://www.comebackalive.in.ua/donate, stop supporting the Russian economy and reject their products, rally local leaders to strengthen economic sanctions and increase Ukrainian support.
I have the "living in peace-time democracy" luxury of taking "official" figures with a grain of salt - but I'm pretty sure your government is waaaaaay behind Moscow's one as far as propaganda is concerned.
You work for Mapbox, a US-based company with offices around the world.
Do you still perform your day-to-day work? How's the relationship with your colleagues these days? I'm curious about the people in Belarus in particular.
No, Mapbox has been very supportive, trying to help however they can and obviously not expecting me (or anyone else in Ukraine) to work any time soon.
Same for colleagues from Belarus and even Russia — they are strongly pro-Ukraine and anti-war, although stating this publicly can easily get them in jail (already happened multiple times).
I'll have your back regardless, let me know and if you and/or your wife and kids need to come to the West I'll be more than happy to pay your way/assist in any way that is required. Mail me: jacques@modularcompany.com Hang in there and stay safe, all of you. Scary times!
Good luck Vladimir Agafonkin. I seems trivial with the current events but I wanted to let you know that I consider Leaflet to be one of my favorite programming projects and one of the most useful projects of all time; several years ago I wrote generic Web Components and JS code to handle it because I consider it such a useful and great project.
I live in Los Angeles, California, USA and while I'm far I will find a way to help. There are many Ukrainians where I live so I will find something to volunteer for ideally (I saw something recently), or I will donate money, or both. I hope that you, your family, and friends live through these hard times. In 2022 I's unbelievable what is happening. Stay safe and good luck.
Have you thought about what will be left of your home and your family's belongings when you return to Kyiv? Have you thought about what returning to Kyiv will be like? The closest approximation to what you're going through in my life is tornadoes: the eerie siren out of nowhere, taking everybody close to you to shelter, calling loved ones to make sure they're safe. But at least the storm passes after an hour or two. I'm so sorry that this is happening to your family, Vladimir.
I accept the possibility that I could return to a bunch of rubble, but I would very much like to return home if/after the war stops and Putin's regime collapses, and rebuild and create with renewed vigor. Most of the things we left behind aren't critical and could be reacquired elsewhere. The most important thing is that my wife and kids are safe and by my side.
Hi Vlad. I want to wish you safety and hoping for peace.
I read about setting up defenses and waiting to repel invaders, but I was wondering if you know about any Ukrainian army offensives. I wasn't sure if it wasn't possible, or if they were waiting for a better time, or maybe it just isn't a better strategy than remaining in a defensive position, or maybe they just aren't being reported.
I heard some reports of limited offensives, notably in Horlivka and near the border around Sumy, although they still seem to serve defensive purposes. Ukrainian Army avoids offensives because the Russians often set up positions in densely populated civilian areas.
We left most of our stuff behind and are now staying with wife and kids in a tiny hotel room, mostly glued to the terrible news, calling to our friends and family and seeing where we can help. Running to the bomb shelter during an air raid siren about 3–4 times a day, sitting in the basement for 10–60 min at a time. But we're glad to have a roof, a place to sleep and shower, power for devices, an Internet connection and food and water — many in Ukraine including some of our extended family don't have those luxuries.
It's miraculous transformation — I was against the current government, like many of my friends, it did its share of mistakes in recent years, but this huge existential threat seems to have propelled them to rise up to the occasion with intense focus and do the right thing. I'm now quite proud of the Ukrainian government.
This is such an bad faith take I don't even know how to engage with this. It's not that you believe it was installed in a CIA backed coup, you just _KNOW_ it.
Being from Eastern Europe, I can tell you, it is worth standing up to Russia and not kowtowing to it. It's normal people want to live in close connection with the western world and not in whatever the heck kind of local order Russia is trying to create. And, also, yes, orange man was unbelievably bad and led to the destabilization of the world around. Calling anti-Trumpism stupidity, lets me believe you are the one living in a delusion unable to consider the realities of the world.
No you don't understand power politics, sorry you're leaning on your own experience instead of the expert approved only USA and Russia matters geopolitical framework. No way that without CIA puppet masters Ukrainians would use their own will (after all non-powers countries have no will or agency) to choose to orient West like the failed Baltic states and Poland instead of being a thriving Russian vassal like Belarus
So are we at the point where we deny the Nuland thing every happened? None of this happened under the foreign policy of Trump. I support Ukrainian self determination but this is not what happened and even if it is it is not how Russia perceives which seems entirely reasonable.
I think Russian motivation works completely different than the way you believe it works. Assigning perfect rationality all the time is a mistake, and misses what I believe is Putin's motivation, recreating Russia as a regional power, and bringing back the old USSR satellites. It's a matter of pride and feelings of offended national pride are a dime a dozen in Eastern Europe.
This is basically equivalent to saying Putin is retarded because there is no way they can pull this off. Putin has acted exactly how he said he would act since at least 2008 when NATO membership was proposed. I'm inclined to believe the words of someone who acts consistently with them rather than your literal bandwagon fallacy.
Putin _is_ consistent, but not with his words but with his actions. He is not thinking in the short term, but in the long term, how can he make Russia a bigger player on the world stage. I repeat, assigning perfect reason to Putin is a mistake, he's driven by ideas that override immediate pragmatism.
If you look at election and poll results there is a clear east/west divide in Ukraine. It is not moot and ignoring this factor is woefully uninformed about the causes and perceptions of this event in the east.
Lots of countries are polarized. Doesn't mean you can spout nonsense about the events of 2014 when two elections cycles have passed since then. That would be like starting a war with the US in 2028 because you think 2020 was stolen.
Always funny to read these incredibly dumb & crazy conspiracy theories, and not surprising given how much shit Trump & Putin's propaganda put into your heads.
Thank you Mr. Agafonkin. I hope you and your family are safe. I also hope you can return to your home country one day, otherwise you are always welcome in ours.
Leaflet is literally my favorite piece of software. So refreshing compared to any other web framework I have had to work with. Thank you for creating it and of course go Ukraine and fuck Putin!
Not translatable at the moment. Military command is obviously behind a closed curtain. Any public mapping efforts may help the enemy as much as Ukrainians, so so far they've been semi-private — e.g. official one-way sites / messenger bots to report enemy sightings / positions.
Also for anyone without showdead enabled, RamblingCTO is not replying to Vladimir but to another comment that got (rightfully) killed within a minute or two.
