So... could anyone with experience in the area give an estimate of how much the likelihood of an unstoppable, untraceable "DIY" bioweapon appearing in the next decade has increased thanks to this?
So I don't have experience in the area, but I'd give it about 0%.
To paraphrase Derek Lowe a lot (see, e.g., https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/19/ai...), there are several hard problems in biology, and the kind of progress embodied in AlphaFold isn't progress towards the rate-limiting problems. And many of the things that make drugs hard to develop are going to carry over into making bioweapons hard to develop.
I'm not an expert, but in a recent article about the new mRNA synthesis techniques they were asked the same question. The answer was there's already lots of potential bioweapons and many simpler techniques for producing them, so these new technologies don't change the danger level much.
You can already make a pretty terrifying bioweapon with GoF research / CRISPR / etc. Better ability to design your own proteins doesn't move the needle much, and is still much harder than the other methods.
I believe it's already straightforward for a decent bio lab at a large University to synthesize dangerous viruses. So it would only be a matter of time until they could selectively add or subtract from the genetic code to create exceptionally dangerous mutations. Don't need any protein folding to do that.
