>People aren't interested in whether you were right or not, what matters is the probability you will be right in the future.
All of this is speculative re: COVID right now, but in the general case how would (royal) you know the probability of someone being right in the future if you don't investigate why they were right in the first place? Or, maybe more importantly why you were wrong?
For example, if Fox News and Alex Jones come out in 4 hours after the first outbreak screaming "IT ESCAPED FROM A LAB IN WUHAN!!!", does that in any way influence what the scientific and medical communities are likely to explore? If you're directing resources for the WHO and you're 50/50 thinking of sending investigators to the lab or the wet markets, does this bias your decision at all?
All of this is speculative re: COVID right now, but in the general case how would (royal) you know the probability of someone being right in the future if you don't investigate why they were right in the first place? Or, maybe more importantly why you were wrong?
For example, if Fox News and Alex Jones come out in 4 hours after the first outbreak screaming "IT ESCAPED FROM A LAB IN WUHAN!!!", does that in any way influence what the scientific and medical communities are likely to explore? If you're directing resources for the WHO and you're 50/50 thinking of sending investigators to the lab or the wet markets, does this bias your decision at all?
My guess is yes.