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Best guess: It won't start deflating (or popping, if there ends up being even more money) until well after Facebook et. al have their IPOs next year. Just watch for articles in 2014ish quoting experts on the consensus "we aren't so skeptical anymore, it's different this time!"


It is different this time, until we start funding things that don't have revenue or any real hope of revenue or a plan beyond vague advertisingness. I don't mean this as disagreement because if we really are in a bubble this is inevitable. On the other hand, if we never really progress to this point, maybe it isn't a bubble. Ultimately there still is a lot of money to be made on the web and with other new technologies, it's not out of the question that what we're seeing today is actually well-grounded.

(Fair disclosure, my personal biases are that if we aren't right now we will be as an inevitable result of extraordinarily loose monetary policy and nowhere else for all the sloshing capital to go. But I don't think the evidence actually quite justifies yelling "BUBBLE!" quite yet. As for the bête noire de jour, I don't think we know enough about Color's private plans to make a call. If they've got nothing but vague advertising plans, yeah, that's bubblish, but I don't think we know that for certain.)


I think I once read a quote by Peter Lynch where he said something like, "I know things are looking good when I'm at a party and people ask me for investment advice. I know looking bad when I'm at a party when people are giving me investment advice."




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