2. Regla-Nava, J. A. et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses with mutations in the E protein are attenuated and promising vaccine candidates. J. Virol. 89, 3870–3887 (2015). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25609816/
Authors idea of spreading the attenuated virus is based on the idea that if the immediate COVID-19 disease can be avoided, increasing viral load in population is smaller risk. I think that's the weak point. If the vaccine is developed and the virus establishes itself in the population, the number of people getting infected will be lower overall and less people will get severe disease due to natural immunity + vaccine.
ps.
> appears to be killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects
Author is confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with infection fatality rate (IFR). Infection fatality ratio seems to be something like 0.6% according to recent estimates. IFR estimates seem to go down over time.
This is not a proposal for a live attenuated vaccine.
These numbers on the death rate are not mine, but what has been reported in the scientific literature. Probably the best numbers come from South Korea where they have done a pretty good job of tracking down everyone infected. There the fatality rate is around 1.8%.
Even if the true death rate is 0.6% that still means the deaths of nearly 50 million people worldwide.
We are talking infection fatality rate not infection rate.
Infection fatality rate is number of people who die after they are infected. That's one of the most important numbers and it can be estimated. It's different from case fatality rate. Number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 who die.
You started your argument trying to argue based on your understanding of what the infection fatality rate is.
Nobody knows the true infection fatality rate. Probably the best estimate we can make is from South Korea where they have done a pretty good job of testing everyone infected. There the infection fatality rate is 1.8% and rising as the cases age out and people in the ICUs die.
> There the infection fatality rate is 1.8% and rising as the cases age out and people in the ICUs die.
You continue citing case fatality rate (CFR) numbers and call them infection fatality rate numbers (IFR). Can you please go back to your sources and read what they say. I bet they are case fatality rates. In South Korea one IFR estimates put the number around 0.4 and 0.7%.
Maybe you can now correct the "killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects" part. It's horribly misleading.
IFR < CFR and IFR estimates go always down over time and never up due to the skewed nature of the data. Antibody tests are coming in already and based on them you get very accurate numbers.
Developing attenuated-virus vaccines is by screening serially propagated SARS-CoV-2 for reduced pathogenity has also been suggested already.
1. The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia calls for viral vaccines https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-020-0170-0
2. Regla-Nava, J. A. et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses with mutations in the E protein are attenuated and promising vaccine candidates. J. Virol. 89, 3870–3887 (2015). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25609816/
Authors idea of spreading the attenuated virus is based on the idea that if the immediate COVID-19 disease can be avoided, increasing viral load in population is smaller risk. I think that's the weak point. If the vaccine is developed and the virus establishes itself in the population, the number of people getting infected will be lower overall and less people will get severe disease due to natural immunity + vaccine.
ps.
> appears to be killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects
Author is confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with infection fatality rate (IFR). Infection fatality ratio seems to be something like 0.6% according to recent estimates. IFR estimates seem to go down over time.