> Over a year ago, our first iteration of Autopilot was found by the U.S. government to reduce crash rates by as much as 40%.
Why don't they talk only about Autosteer instead of Autosteer+AEB (and other features combined). Why not discuss how many accidents could have been caused by Autopilot if the driver did not correct it. Why is there no commentary on if whether their active driving system would be better run as a passive driver error correction system, as other manufacturers do.
> In the US, there is one automotive fatality every 86 million miles across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.
Ahh, so a Tesla is safer than a 10 year old beaten down car with no airbags driven on country roads, I never expected that. Tesla is safer than even a motorbike, what a surprise. And just having Autopilot in your car (even disabled), makes you 3.7 times less likely to die. Does that say anything about Autopilot, or are they just touting non-Autopilot premium safety features?
> There are about 1.25 million automotive deaths worldwide. If the current safety level of a Tesla vehicle were to be applied, it would mean about 900,000 lives saved per year.
So, motorbikes driving in Himalyas are more deadly than a Tesla on California highways, who would have guessed. What does this say about Autopilot again?
> We expect the safety level of autonomous cars to be 10 times safer than non-autonomous cars.
Elon musk also expected driverless cars to be everywhere in 2017. And autonomous doesn't need to mean hands off driverless cars, they keep conflating assistive feature benefits with their hands-off technology.
- The average US fatality is not in a ten year old car on a country road.
- US crash rates are lower than worldwide rates, so Tesla’s estimate of lives saved worldwide is low.
- If autopilot is only used part of the time, that implies its safety benefit is significantly more than 3.7x. A model S is not 3.7x better at passive safety than other cars.
Of course none of this data is very meaningful. You have to compare the rates of autopilot users to non-autopilot users of similar demographics, and have all crashes recorded, not just fatalities, to get close to a comparative samples.
> US crash rates are lower than worldwide rates, so Tesla’s estimate of lives saved worldwide is low.
Road fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants per year (2013, WHO):
UK 2.9
Spain 3.7
Germany 4.3
France 5.1
USA 10.6
Among the rich countries, the US crash rate is one of the worst. With a similar set of vehicles, this rate is very fluctuent, per country and per year. Hint: the problem may not be purely mechanical.
Seriously, would Tesla's autopilot lower the crash rate in the UK? In Thailand? I guess it wouldn't change much in European countries, and any good car would do the same in poor countries.
> Why not discuss how many accidents could have been caused by Autopilot if the driver did not correct it.
It's hard to gather statistics about thing like that because it just look like a normal drive unless the driver records the near miss which is unusual unless they're driving with a dashcam or have had something happen in the same place multiple times.
> Over a year ago, our first iteration of Autopilot was found by the U.S. government to reduce crash rates by as much as 40%.
Why don't they talk only about Autosteer instead of Autosteer+AEB (and other features combined). Why not discuss how many accidents could have been caused by Autopilot if the driver did not correct it. Why is there no commentary on if whether their active driving system would be better run as a passive driver error correction system, as other manufacturers do.
> In the US, there is one automotive fatality every 86 million miles across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.
Ahh, so a Tesla is safer than a 10 year old beaten down car with no airbags driven on country roads, I never expected that. Tesla is safer than even a motorbike, what a surprise. And just having Autopilot in your car (even disabled), makes you 3.7 times less likely to die. Does that say anything about Autopilot, or are they just touting non-Autopilot premium safety features?
> There are about 1.25 million automotive deaths worldwide. If the current safety level of a Tesla vehicle were to be applied, it would mean about 900,000 lives saved per year.
So, motorbikes driving in Himalyas are more deadly than a Tesla on California highways, who would have guessed. What does this say about Autopilot again?
> We expect the safety level of autonomous cars to be 10 times safer than non-autonomous cars.
Elon musk also expected driverless cars to be everywhere in 2017. And autonomous doesn't need to mean hands off driverless cars, they keep conflating assistive feature benefits with their hands-off technology.