They started working on humanoid robots because Musk always has to have the next moonshot, trillion-dollar idea to promise "in 3 years" to keep the stock price high.
As soon as Waymo's massive robotaxi lead became undeniable, he pivoted to from robotaxis to humanoid robots.
Pretty much. They banked on "if we can solve FSD, we can partially solve humanoid robot autonomy, because both are robots operating in poorly structured real world environments".
Obviously both will exist and compete with each other on the margins. The thing to appreciate is that our physical world is already built like an API for adult humans. Swinging doors, stairs, cupboards, benchtops. If you want a robot to traverse the space and be useful for more than one task, the humanoid form makes sense.
The key question is whether general purpose robots can outcompete on sheer economies of scale alone.
I agree that each would be made slightly better with a more integrated system. But you could handle all of them in my hundred year old house with the form factor it was designed for: a humanoid. Probably pretty soon here for cheaper than each could be handled separately by more integrated systems.
For new builds, a laundry/utility room that includes the dishwashing and other "housekeeping" facilities is a no-brainer when there is a custom robot built to use those facilities as well as maneuver around the rest of the house.
For old/retrofit renovations it also makes sense, but otherwise, yes, a human-form robot makes sense.
The question is which is a better investment for any robot manufacturer in 2026?
The drop in demand for Tesla's clapped out model range would have meant embarrassing factory closures, so now they're being closed to start manufacturing a completely different product. Bait and switch for Tesla investors.
I wonder how long they'll be closed for "modifications" and whether the Optimus Prime robot factories will go into production before the "Trump Kennedy Center" is reopened after its "renovations".
Just reading your description, it sounds like there are two variables:
1. Prompt adherence: how well the models follow your stated strategy
2. Decision quality: how well models do on judgment calls that aren’t explicitly in the strategy
Candidly, since you haven’t shared the strategy, there’s no way for me to evaluate either (1) or (2). A model’s performance could be coming from the quality of your strategy, the model itself, or an interaction between the two, and I can’t disentangle that from what you’ve provided.
So as presented, the benchmark is basically useless to me for evaluating models (not because it’s pointless overall, but because I can’t tell what it’s actually measuring without seeing the strategy).
That's a fair point. You're right that without seeing the strategy, you can't fully disentangle what drives the differences.
But the strategy itself isn't really the point. Since every model gets the exact same prompt and the exact same market data, the only variable is the model. So relative performance differences are real regardless of what the strategy contains. If Model A consistently outperforms Model B under identical conditions, that tells you something meaningful about the model.
And honestly, that blend of prompt adherence and decision quality is how people actually use LLMs in practice. You give it instructions and context, and you care about the result.
You're right though that the strategy being private limits what outsiders can evaluate. It's something I'm thinking about.
To be more specific: the prompt defines a trading philosophy and tells models what to look for in the charts. But the actual read and the decision is entirely on the model. Using your framing — it's closer to "here's inspiration, now maximize money" than "implement this exact strategy."
Which means improvisation within that framework is exactly what's being measured.
I suspect this sort of thing starts to happen when UX decision-making gets decentralized. No single god-king would allow six or more different new icons; the lack of uniformity is obviously nonsensical to anybody, but not necessarily to a disorganized collective of anybodies.
Hate to break it to you, but many kids actually do better away from their parents than with them.
It's extremely sad, but a consistent finding in early childhood education is that the children who thrive most in daycares tend to come from the least advantaged backgrounds.
So a policy of paying parents to stay home would mostly benefit kids who are already well off.
Kids are social and like playing and learning from other kids. Daycare lets them do just that. It’s a great thing and every toddler I’ve met who wasn’t in daycare was behind in something. Especially verbal skills.
Plus daycare allows women to continue their career progression. It’s soo important. Not every woman wants to end their career as a mother to a young kid. Daycare enables successful women to thrive and still have families.
Your anecdote is just that. All of it is highly dependent on the child, their environment, and the 'educator'. Please don't make assumptions based on your limited exposure; it's not helpful.
Your "it depends" argument is that some kids aren't social, don't like playing with other kids, are better off not having exposure to social interaction with peers and practice talking.
If this is the criticism then it's a glowing endorsement of daycare and school.
No; it depends on the 'educator'. A daycare that doesn't have kids interacting in a positive way could be just as detrimental as a parent that doesn't socialize their children externally to the home.
I'm just gonna throw this out here: Well-off kids who barely know their workaholic parents have different but equally bad issues for society, than the poor kids do.
Those poor kids have learning deficits. The "well-off" kids often have morality deficits.
A mom or dad raising them properly might help them more than being Student #642 in a government childcare facility.
This isn't an argument against childcare. My children attended preschool for 3 years before Kindergarten. But I'd rather that people got equal support to have a stay-at-home parent so that people can choose.
From what I’ve seen, the research leans the other way. For example:
Children from more advantaged families were actually more likely to view unfair distribution as unfair, while poorer children were more likely to accept it. [0]
Mother’s work hours show no link to childhood behavioral problems, it’s schedule flexibility that matters. [1]
For working-class families, more father work hours correlated with fewer behavioral problems.[2]
The idea that “well-off kids” end up with morality deficits because their parents work a lot doesn’t seem to hold up.
You aren't wrong but calling it being "Student #642 in a government childcare facility" the wrong way of looking at it. Children grow up best when they are allowed to play with other children. Modern society robs kids of that and helicopter parents are bad for society.
I agree with you vigorously on both those points. I am skeptical however that NM will be able to create a lot of healthy, play-based environments for so many kids.
The market already has incentives to create them -- a ton of good places have waiting lists nationwide, showing unmet demand even at the current price. This suggests the price will need to go higher to attract enough people to do this job. It seems their "$12,000 value" estimate is based on an optimistic belief that they will be buying childcare for their citizens at current prices. When they realize there aren't that many slots available at current rates of pay, will they be okay significantly increasing the costs of the program?
So, my expectations for these facilities are very low and that's a big part of my concern.
> Hate to break it to you, but many kids actually do better away from their parents than with them.
Is this based on something?
There's research left and right shows that children under 36 months at group nurseries are linked to increased aggression, anxiety, lower emotional skills, elevated cortisol (stress hormone), which is associated with long-term health and developmental risks.
Infants and children do better with one-to-one care at home by their parents and familiar faces, rather than strangers in a group setting.
Perhaps there is something about the environment of an economically disadvantaged household that could be improved by a stipend which allows at least one parent the breathing room to dedicate full time attention to the child instead of a job (or multiple jobs). I don't think the findings you mentioned cut against that idea at all.
I hear you saying the benefit of dedicated caregiving for children mostly helps families with less economic advantage. I'd agree with that, and suggest that OP's proposal capitalizes on exactly that. I'm not convinced of what may be implied in your argument that low-earners make for bad parents and that children should be separated more from their parents for their own good. Let the internal dynamics of a family be solved first, before saying we need to separate parents from children more.
Moreover, those with more economic advantage are unlikely to take a stipend in exchange for staying home. That's not a good deal when keeping the job pays so much that they can afford to pay for childcare.
It is precisely those with less advantage who will take the deal.
So I don't agree with your prediction that such a stipend mostly benefits those who are already well off.
My daycare was called preschool. It allowed my mother to focus on my infant brother during the day while I was literally two blocks away running around, coloring and learning shapes. Show and tell was my favorite.
The most obvious example is the children of addicts. It’s hard to imagine a kid is better off stuck at home with druggie parents than spending the day in daycare.
A good example of bottom quintile policy. Because the bottom quintile has a better outcome with a certain approach, it becomes standard care for everyone else.
A realistic stay-at-home subsidy would max out around $30k. Your proposal only meaningfully shifts incentives for the bottom income quintile. For everyone else:
- Upper-income families can already afford to choose whatever setup they want.
- Middle-income families couldn’t take it because it’d mean too steep a drop in income.
So the alternative you proposed economically benefits the bottom quintile while leaving their kids worse off. For everyone else, it probably either doesn't matter or gives them cash they don't need as much.
Another day, another person not getting discounted cash flow.
Models trained in 2025 don’t ship until 2026/7. That means the $3bn in 2025 training costs show up as expense now, while the revenue comes later. Treating that as a straight loss is just confused.
OAI’s projected $5bn 2025 loss is mostly training spend. If you don’t separate that out with future revenues, you’re misreading the business.
And yes, inference gross margins are positive. No idea why the author pretends they aren’t.
As a researcher, I can totally agree, but at the same time this isn't super straight forward. Things get weird because you can't just translate from one GPU to another. There isn't a clean calculation for that. There's also other issues like parallelism. Sure, your model is stable with a batch size of 8192 but that's across 1 node, it might not be stable with that batch across 2 nodes. This is a real frustrating part and honestly I don't think most people even are aware such issues exist.
Right now I'm just happy when people are including parameter, GMACs (or FLOPs), and throughput. I always include those and the GPUs I used. I also frequently include more information in the appendix but frankly when I include it in the front matter the paper is more likely to be rejected.
I can tell you why this isn't happening though. There's a common belief that scale is all you need. Which turns into "fuck the GPU poor". I've published works where my model is 100x smaller (with higher throughput, and far lower training costs), and the responses from reviewers tend to be along the lines "why isn't it better?" or "why not just distill or prune a large model?" There's this weird behavior that makes the black box stay a black box. I mean Yi Tay famously said "Fuck theorists" on twitter
Calculators are a very narrow form of intelligence as compared to the general-purpose intelligence that LLMs are. The muscle/steroid analogy from this same discussion thread is apt here. Calculators enhanced and replaced just one 'muscle', so the argument against them would be like "ya but do we really need this one muscle anymore?", whereas with LLMs the argument is "do we really even need a body at all anymore?" (if extrapolated out several more years into the future).
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