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Very cool! I was having a conversation with my colleagues yesterday about building something to detect when you get scanned by a SAR (synthetic aperture radar) satellite (we're in earth observation), but you'd have to get a directional antenna to not be drowned out by terrestrial radio signals.

> Classic private equity move dressed up as a tech company.

Kinda, more like a tech company using private equity tactics. Say what you want about them, but they do actually employ decent engineers, and the founders are all engineers.

They seem to fundamentally understand the companies they are buying (not always the feeling I get with PE).

Their business model is a bit cynical, but I would still consider them a tech company.


I think it is good to understand tech company and then startup or VC company.

Tech company is company with marginal unit costs. Bending Spoons aims these and then optimize them further.

Startup or VC, search "growth" and user acquisition. Usually in something with marginal unit costs.

Just because someone stops spending money on chasing growth does not mean they still don't have unit economics of tech companies.


> They are powerful tools for forecasting complex events that can help enrich and empower folks from across a range of backgrounds.

gross. This sounds like a press release.

It's gambling dressed-up as forecasting.


It might be gambling for some, but prediction markets are impressively accurate, in a way that I think merits OPs comment that the information they produce can improve lives. (Other lives will surely be destroyed by gambling...)

There's quite a bit of interesting research done on the accuracy, here's a great resource:

https://calibration.city/introduction


What value does an accurate prediction market bring? I.e. how can this information be used to improve lives (other than the person winning the bet)? I.e. even if it is sorta accurate, is this valuable to anyone?

As I see it it seems to be a way to incentivize insiders to leak information, e.g. see the alleged Google insider betting on Google actions: https://www.forbes.com/sites/boazsobrado/2025/12/04/alleged-...

Great for the person who has insider knowledge, probably not so great for Google. I wouldn't be surprized if some companies start cracking down on their employees making bank off unannounced company actions.



Your response is very dismissive in that it doesn't engage with any of the other parts of my comment that provide a lot of nuance and analysis for the issues presented.

My description, and appreciation, for these types of tools and their trade-offs comes from reading about their early proposals. I don't trade or engage with any of them in their current form.

Recommend reading early work on them by Phillip Tetlock, as well as the many criticisms and responses that came about at the time and basically covered all of the ground we're retreading today in these discussions.


Damn, I love finding some hyper-specific forums like this one.

Sooo much jargon.


Also, you mean the VAT that was introduced into (West) Germany in *checks-notes* 1968?

I'm pretty sure someone has done an analysis on VAT since it was introduced 58 years ago...

It's a really destabilising policy as you can see.


Tariffs were invented in 2025?

All of it? There's no question about who pays VAT, and there never has been. You can have whatever opinion you want on VAT, but there's never been any messaging that anyone else will be paying for VAT.

US Americans is usually used outside the US to differentiate inhabitants of the US from citizens of other countries in the Americas (e.g. Mexico, Canada, and all of central and South America).

E.g. in Germany, inhabitants of the US are usually called "US amerikaner", so this is a direct translation (the Kiel institute is in Germany).

It's just Germans being stereotypically precise about things (and reminding citizens of the USA that they aren't the only people in the Americas).


Funny, but I think you're missing the point here.

This is not meant to be an efficient, every day messaging platform.

It's for people who are afraid of the government turning off the internet/cell network (kinda justified if you live in Iran or Uganda), or those networks going offline due to natural disasters (see Jamaica)


https://fnands.com/

I write about whatever I find interesting, averaging around 4-5 posts a year.

Quarto page, so mostly write in Jupyter notebooks or markdown files.


A friend of mine is working for a small-ish startup (11 people) and he gets to work and sees the CTO push 10k loc changes straight to main at 3 am.

Probs fine when you are still in the exploration phase of a startup, scary once you get to some kind of stability


I feel like this becomes kind of unacceptable as soon as you take on your first developer employee. 10K LOC changes from the CTO is fine when it's only the CTO working on the project.

Hell, for my hobby projects, I try to keep individual commits under 50-100 lines of code.


Templates and templating languages are still a thing. Source generators are a thing. Languages that support macros exist. Metaprogramming is always an option. Systems that write systems…

If these AIs are so smart, why the giant LOCs?

Sure, it’s cheaper today than yesterday to write out boilerplate, but programming is about eliminating boilerplate and using more powerful abstractions. It’s easy to save time doing lots of repetitive nonsense, stopping the nonsense should be the point.


Lol I worked at a startup where the CTO did this. The problem was that it was pure spaghetti code. It was so bad it kept me up at night, thinking about how to fix things. I left within 30 days


I worked with a “CTO” who did that before LLMs - one of the worst jobs I have had in the last 10 years. I spent at least 50% of my time putting out fires or refactoring his garbage code


The cto is ultimately responsible for the outcome and will be there at 4am to fix stuff.


Yes .. and no. Someone who does this will definitely make the staff clean up after them.


I'd go mental if I was a SWE having to mop that up later


That's...idiotic.


[flagged]


I mean, I've vibe-coded a few useful single-file HTML tools, but checking in 10kloc at 3am into the production database...by the CTO...omg.


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